Here is yourweekly market updatefrom the Garden City Co-opGrain Origination Team.
Answers at the bottom.
BRAZIL’S SAFRINHA CROP: The potential size of Brazil’s second corn crop is under threat as two key Brazilian corn-growing states, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, are expected to lose part of the crop due to dry weather during March and April. Despite having sown second-crop corn in a more favorable time window than last year, the entire southern region of Mato Grosso do Sul was affected by drought, causing irreversible damage. However, good yield potential in two center-western states should partly offset losses elsewhere, as they experienced well-distributed rainfall during corn’s development stage. Agroconsult forecasts safrinha production at 96.7 MMT, which would be down 10.5% from last year, though it will know more about potential crop size following its field samples.
WHEAT MARKET: U.S. wheat futures have been on a volatile ride the last several weeks but are taking direction from MATIF (Paris) wheat this week. The Russian wheat crop and forecast remains the sole focus of international wheat markets. Russia continues to lower their production estimates due to dryness and frost damage, with IKAR lowering their estimate from 86 MMT to 83.5 MMT this week. Continued dry Black Sea forecasts are keeping the market supported for now. The real threat is if Putin starts talking about limiting exports to preserve domestic supplies/ but it is worth noting that the global wheat supply does have aces up its sleeve with better crops in other wheat producing countries. The volatility in the market has provided some nice selling opportunities for new crop wheat. With recent rains in our draw area making the looming wheat harvest feel a little more palatable, it is worth considering what levels might make sense for your operation. Reach out to a member of the grain team if we can get some orders working for you.
EXPORT INSPECTIONS/SALES: Corn received a boost last week, with shipments Meeting trade estimates at 47.7 million bushels. While cumulative shipments are slightly behind pace, the past week's shipments were lower than average but better than the previous week. Soybeans inspected 6.8 million bushels, compared to 15.9 million the week before. Wheat was also tallied in single digits, with 7.6 million bushels, and Milo shipped 4.9 million bushels.
In the corn sales, we observed 35.9 million bushels compared to 29.2 million last week, which aligns with trade estimates. Additionally, we secured 12.0 million in new-crop contracts, with 15 weeks remaining in the marketing year. However, we are still below the required pace. We sold 10.3 million bushels of soybeans, with the primary export destinations being Japan, an unknown location, and Egypt. New crop sales amounted to 2.4 million bushels. Milo sales are ahead of the pace, with 200,000 bushels of old crops sold and no new crops. Wheat sales were not as strong, with 700,000 bushels of old crop cancellations reported, meeting the lower end of estimates. However, new crop purchases from Mexico and Brazil resulted in 8.3 million bushels sold.
CROP PROGRESS:USDA dispelled the idea that wet weather is significantly slowing up planting progress in Monday’s report, estimating that the U.S. corn crop is 70% planted versus a 71% 5-year average at this time. This was 2% better than trade estimates. Likewise, they estimate that the soybean crop is 52% planted, slightly ahead of 49% on average. This was a 21% jump in progress for corn planting from last week and a 17% jump for soybeans. Iowa and Illinois saw huge progress, leaving the Northern Plains and the Eastern Corn Belt as the ones needing to finish. U.S. Winter wheat ratings dropped 1% from last week to 49% good-to-excellent. Colorado and Oklahoma saw drops, while Kansas increased 2% week-over-week. The national rating is ahead of the 5-year average of 45% good-to-excellent at this time.
Weather:Today we can expect temperatures to reach around 91°F with a breezy, south wind between 17 and 20 mph. Winds are predicted to remain steady throughout the remainder of the night with lows around 50°F. Friday is again looking sunny and clear with a high of 77°F and winds coming out of the north at 9 to 18 mph. This weekend is expected to be sunny, with high temperatures anticipated in the high 80s/low 90s. You can expect a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1 pm on Sunday. The remainder of the week appears to be clear with a high in the mid- to high 80s. Tuesday holds a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the remainder of the week appears to be dry. The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook to remain in effect through Wednesday next week, including portions of central, south central, southwest, and west central Kansas. Favorable conditions create a chance of isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon along and ahead of a dryline near US 283. Another round of severe thunderstorms is plausible Saturday afternoon, again, along and ahead of the dryline anticipated near US 283.
